NOWCAST 02/02/16 Severe Weather Possible

The numbers will be there....All available data may show support for severe weather for our region. But will we see any widespread issues with this setup?

Analogs do not support a widespread severe weather outbreak, but the numbers are pretty scary. Nevertheless, the best chances for tornadoes appear to be west and south of Kentucky. But, isolated tornado chances still exist across the state, especially west and south.

The more sun we get, the windier it will be today, more instability. The caveat...say it with me, THE CAP. Just like spring and summer, the dreaded cap will stall initial development of thunderstorms. But, once the cap breaks, storms fire up quickly and may reach severe limits.

It will be interesting to see how many severe reports we get from this system. I'm not too impressed but do believe a few strong tornadoes are possible where the SPC has been highlighting the greatest risk, generally west and south of I-65. Look for the updates below....
--------------------------------------

Update 1:30pm
Quick update...a few showers not severe have broken out during the last couple of hours. While a few downpours can be expected, nothing threatening with these cells. In fact may hamper instability for a time reducing severe threat for some.
Winds will eventually get cranking soon.
Tornado Watch for Western Kentucky...not an impressive Watch box as far as probabilities go for tornadoes. 50% chance for two or more within that large Watch box. Low end for strong tornadoes.

-----------------------
Update 3:20pm
No warnings locally or regionally for that matter.
A couple of tornado warnings in Mississippi, don't know if any are confirmed yet or just radar-indicated.
A growing line of storms moving across western Kentucky with heavy rain.
Perhaps these less intense storms may rob the atmosphere of the needed instability for severe weather.
-------------------------

Update 4:10pm
New Tornado Watch till 11:00pm est
Includes Breckinridge, Hardin, Meade, and Nelson counties in Louisville CWA.
Jefferson County not included.
More info later.
Also Tornado Warning not too far from Clarksville Tennessee, moving northeast.
-----------------

Update 5:15pm
Not too many damage reports coming in...except in a few counties of Mississippi, possibly a tornadic cell affecting the few counties involved.
Otherwise, are getting radar indicated tornado warnings for parts of western Kentucky, but no damage reports received nor confirmed touchdowns.
-------------