MikJournal February Prediction

Welcome to the last in a 3-part series of the MikJournal's winter prediction. I find this monthly format to be far superior than a single snapshot of what the entire winter season will be about without any specific time periods mentioned and impending storm systems to worry about. Plus the data is more fresh and useful in actually providing readers with a better assessment of the state of our climate as we progress throughout the winter season. In other words, there is more accountability with a monthly projection than some long-range outlook that just does not do much for the average reader, who will quite likely forget what the outlook said over the course of a few months.

I have been pleased with my December and January predictions. The averages have been accurately achieved and a general description of how teleconnections are associated with general weather patterns have been explained and realized.

Moving into the month of February, we have already seen quite a bit of precipitation. Plus, we are beginning to experience the first of perhaps several transitions for the month when it comes to temperature variability.

Let me explain.

Part of the delay in the issuance of this report was due to the need for the freshest data possible, since there has been mixed thus conflicting data about how cold the month of February may become.

This first week of February looks quite normal for the month, except the hefty rain totals realized late yesterday and overnight.

By the time we get into the second week, temperatures look to average several degrees below normal. In addition, clipper type systems will provide intermittent light snowfall during the time period. I back this up with the teleconnection patterns that I often refer to in my assessments.

The Arctic Oscillation, the Keeper of the Cold, should be entering the negative phase, joined by a negative EPO and a positive PNA. But, it only peaks out for a few days. Why? So far, the postive NAO is not on board yet with setting up our region for a long-term progression of below normal temperatures. Remember, we need a good blocking pattern near Greenland, and this is where the NAO can become most useful being in a negative phase.

Therefore, the third week looks to average out near normal in terms of temperatures as the AO begins to bottom out and trend more positive while the EPO becomes positive and the PNA trends negative late in the period, suggesting milder air interspersed with cold shots from the still negative AO.

Next, the fun part. This is what held me up for the longest time in getting this report together.

The AO, is expected to transition to positive for a brief time. As you found it last month, this transition from deep negative AO toward neutral and positive AO can produce exciting winter weather for our region.

The data I see for the fourth week of February does not suggest a record-setting snowfall like we had in January. However, this looks to be the greatest opportunity to see a significant snowfall for the month. Obviously, I cannot foresee actual accumulations this far out, but the potential is there for a decent storm system.

After a brief thaw from a possible snowpack and resulting frigid overnight temperatures, the AO should trend sharply negative for the latter half of the month, plunging our region well below normal again in terms of temperature

This is in part due to a phenomena in the Arctic region called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. A transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere will have a pronounced effect on the Polar Vortex. The latest data suggests the Polar Vortex will likely become displaced as the belt of winds weaken. However, the primary displacement looks to be over Europe/Asia. Nevertheless, Arctic air will become readily available for most, as along as the other teleconnections align., such as +PNA, -EPO, -NAO, and of course the -AO.

I do expect temperatures for the month to average below normal.
I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal.

MS