AO Negative to Positive Alert

Ok, what a strange sounding title for a post. However, one of the patterns I have noticed is when the Arctic Oscillation is in a significantly negative mode (-3 to -5) but trending positively toward neutral, milder air is attempting to return to our region after a stout cold blast.

Often associated with milder air will be a storm system that gathers moisture from the Gulf. As long as the track of the low pressure area does not take a route to the Great Lakes, which should not happen in this case but is still possible, some type of significant wintry weather will occur in our region.

However, I really would not say that this storm system, if it can develop, will be as memorable as the January Jukebox when everyone was doing snow dances to the sound of snowflakes piling up in their neighborhoods.

Look, this storm system has not developed yet, but the AO will be trending toward neutral at about the same time the models are developing a potential winter storm. But, the other teleconnections that I like to use are pretty much out to lunch or are on vacation.

The NAO, EPO, and PNA will all be positive. Therefore, if it does snow, look for a heavy perhaps wet snow, good-packing unlike last month's snowfall for many that was more dry and powdery.

Since snow ratios will be lower in number due to the high water content, I would expect lesser accumulations as the snow will pack down an already existing base.

IF this storm system develops and will produce snow for our region, which could happen in the vicinity of February 14.

At this time, it would be impossible to peg amounts. I am just letting you know that this storm system does have a teleconnection that favors a winter storm for someone, hopefully our region if of course you're a snow lover like me.

MS