NOWCAST Mode Sneetzing Rain

Okay, I know it's early in the morning. But what in the world is 'sneetzing rain'?

Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and just plain liquid rain.

I tried to make sneezing rain out of it, but I do think sleet will be a major factor in Louisville's precipitation type. However, that could change. That's why we call that nowcasting.

As the precipitation falls, we shall see how the upper levels of the atmosphere are responding between the diminishing Arctic influence and the surging 'warmth' from the Gulf of Mexico and make a better forecast based on the data.

And I guarantee you that will even change throughout the course of the next several hours. Just have to keep up and watch the forecast change many times even while precipitation is falling.

Therefore, I'll be posting from here for the next 24-36 hours. -- MS
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9:00am UPDATE

-32 near Richmond (Mesonet site) for a low temperature
-6 at Louisville Int'l airport
-18 at Lexington Bluegrass airport
-21 at Frankfort

These readings may be updated later.

Speaking of Lexington's Bluegrass airport, whatever happened about that heat-sensitive sensor issue during last summer? Their high of 7 with full sunshine yesterday compared favorably with the 6 degree Mesonet reading. Lexington could not even beat out Frankfort's official high of 8.

Lexington's snow and sleet total at 14.9" is good enough for 3rd snowiest February on record so far. The all-time snowiest February was 17.4" in 1998.

Also, if we called it quits right now, Lexington would have its 9th coldest February on record, replacing 2007's 9th place position.
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9:45am UPDATE

FWIW, Weather Prediction Center has from Louisville to Florence in a moderate shading for >= 4" snow.

The entire area south of Louisville has at least a slight risk of >= 0.25" ice accumulations.
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10:05am UPDATE

"There's one good thing about snow, it makes your lawn look as nice as your neighbors."--Clyde Moore

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11:05am UPDATE

14hr RAP model for midnight tonight shows snow and a mix moving into central and north-central KY. A mix and freezing rain in western KY. By 4:00am, snow north of Frankfort, mix for Louisville and Lexington, freezing rain in southwest KY and plain liquid rain and occasional mix for southern and south-central KY.

I will use the midnight and 4:00am time frame throughout the next successive runs of the RAP. I will update this in about 4 hours, the 18z run.
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11:20am UPDATE

Correspondingly, the latest NAM suite has freezing rain for much of Kentucky west of I-75 for the 1:00am time frame.
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2:40pm UPDATE

18z RAP model for midnight shows primarily a mix of snow and sleet moving into Louisville and heavy sleet by 4:00am. Heaviest snow confined to southern Indiana and northern KY like near Florence and Erlanger. Mix for most of the state with liquid rain in western KY also by 4am.

My thoughts - I've been leaning more toward a sleet storm here in Louisville and the RAP is picking up on this. Still, not a lock. The snow line is way too close for me to pull the trigger. Some portions of Louisville area could see a surprise big snow while others will see quite a bit of sleet.

After 4am, more of a heavy mix for Louisville. Tough to call which one will win out. I'm not used to having such a situation at the surface and diminishing Arctic influence while warmer air trying to win out. Since it does appear warmer air will eventually win out, I'm leaning more toward a sleet event through early Saturday morning.
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