Make no mistake about. The cold air that will be in place shortly will offer opportunities for some wintry weather. However, one cannot look at any model right now and expect a solution.
So, try looking at analogs instead. That's what I do.
This is a GFS analog. So, take it for what it's worth.
The number 1 ranked analog which showed up in our region as well as the region encompassing eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas is from December 08-09, 1995.
This is from 5 days out. A lot can happen between now and then. A preliminary look at this analog shows a stripe of 2" snowfall amounts along the Ohio River, primarily across western KY.
The number 3 ranked analog in terms of snowfall placement has a system going to the south of Louisville, affecting communities like Bowling Green, London, Somerset with wintry precipitation, possibly accumulating a couple of inches in those areas.
So, the GFS seems pretty pumped about snow chances somewhere in the region.
Conferring with the actual weather events for the number 1 ranked analog, there were some similarities.
Louisville warmed to 60 degrees a few days before the 'snow' event. That same night temperatures dropped to 27 degrees. Then it warmed up to near 40 degrees the next two days with lows in the 20's, corresponding with the 7th and 8th.
A storm system developed across the panhandle of Oklahoma and scooted east during the 8th and 9th. Our weather was impacted shortly afterward. Slushy accumulations of up to 2" caused numerous accidents in western KY and down near Marion, a fatality occurred along U.S. Hwy 60.
Behind that front, temperatures really tanked, and I do mean tanked. Overnight lows in the single digits and highs only in the mid teens for Louisville and other locations in western KY.
As far as I know, we're not forecasting temperatures here approaching those levels yet. But, an additional shot of colder air is expected by later this weekend and may push overnight lows easily into the teens for many of us.
That's all for now. More updates later.
MS
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