MikJournal First Call for Snowfall Sunday PM-Monday PM

After reviewing the 12z run of the NAM and comparing it with the other models, I've decided to put out a first call for snowfall  but will likely make changes with my final call later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Here's my thoughts....

The most recent run of the NAM continues to 'warm' this system. With that said, initially the upper levels may not support much snow but rain or a rain/snow mix by Sunday evening across southern and southeast Kentucky.

In fact all the way to the Ohio River, conditions will not support all snow yet. But the main precipitation will not move in to those areas until later in the evening into the overnight.

By then, at least a light rain/snow mix will be in progress along the Ohio River after midnight while rainy conditions should exist along a line from Richmond southward.

Precip does transition to all snow by rush hour Monday morning possibly impacting travel for many residents in north-central Kentucky and possibly as far east as Lexington.

During the day Monday, colder air really begins to filter in on the heels of brisk north and northwest winds, blowing snow around with additional snow showers expected overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

The entire state will see snow. It's just that some locations will see more. Here are my first call numbers...I'm not even going to try and put this into graphical format as I know these values may change later.

Louisville and Southern Indiana -   1-4"
Cincinnati to Lexington -    1-4"
Bowling Green to Morehead-   0.5 - 2.5"
Somerset to Middlesboro- Trace to 2"
Pikeville to Ashland-   1-2"

There are hints from additional models that a stripe of heavy snow may occur. At this time, it is still too early to see where that may set up. In fact, may have to leave that to the dreaded nowcast mode when using the RAP or Rapid Refresh Model.

Final Call late tonight or tomorrow morning....

MS