Looking Two Weeks Down the Road Sep 24 - Oct 8 2014

It's always fun trying to figure out what could happen several days down the road. Unfortunately, accuracy of available information is still in its developing stages. So, think of it as 'for intelligent entertainment purposes only'.

Now, I will say that some computer models are really doing a better job forecasting out some 10 days in advance. I just completed the results of one study comparing the 850 hPa of the ECMWF and GFS and performing my interpretation of the high temperatures expected during a 9-day stretch.

The ECMWF performed very well over that period. The GFS, well, it is the GFS. Hopefully in the coming years, more money can become available to enhance our medium-range computer models. A high resolution type like the ECMWF can be very useful, not just for temperatures, but the whole range of weather.

Therefore, I relied quite a bit on the 'Euro' forecast model for this two week period.

First, very nice, tranquil weather will continue on into this weekend. Even the GFS has no problem with that.

Next week, still does not look that bad. According to a recent run of the Euro, a storm system does appear that it will affect the region early on. However, the bulk of the precipitation may not affect the entire state of Kentucky. Perhaps more southern and eastern Kentucky counties will see the most rainfall.

Then, that's outta here.

Well, after that, it starts getting interesting. A storm system with cold Canadian origins will make its trek sliding down the jet stream toward the U.S. A rush of warm air advection ahead of the front could push high temperatures into the 80's for the first part of October. Not bad.

However, the cold air will begin spilling into the area by the first weekend of October. At this time, temperatures appear to be similar to the air mass we've been experiencing, maybe a tad cooler.

Finally, a potent low pressure system will be following on the heels of the prior system. Temperatures will be hard pressed to recover during this time. Therefore, I'm expecting high temperatures not making it out of the 50's perhaps even here in Louisville toward the beginning of the first full week of October, say the 5th or 6th, and possible frost in here by the 6th.

At this time, it is hard to say whether October will be a cold month overall, like 1987 (an analog I'm using). Nevertheless, I'll be cleaning out my garden by the first few days of October, harvesting whatever is left before the possible first frost a few days afterward.

MS