Friday, September 19, 2014

Crunching Numbers...Statistics for Louisville 2013

The other day I was wondering what was the most common daily temperature reported for all of last year at the airport here in Louisville. Now, this would be defined by both the daily high and low temperatures for any given day totaling 365 days, or 730 entries.

After performing a histogram on the data, here's what it revealed...

Louisville International's most common daily temperature was...(drum roll please)...64 degrees.

Here is a list of the top 5:

64 degrees       21x
68 degrees       19x
34 degrees       18x
70 degrees       17x
73 degrees       17x

The mean or average temperature for 2013 was 57.5 degrees and a standard deviation of 20.4 degrees.

The maximum temperature was 96 and the minimum was 9.

Below is a summary of the statistical data...notice the 'Mode' shows 64, which is the most common temperature reported for last year. - MS

Mean 57.53836
Standard Error 0.755293
Median 59
Mode 64
Standard Deviation 20.40688
Sample Variance 416.4409
Kurtosis -1.01645
Skewness -0.14554
Range 87
Minimum 9
Maximum 96
Sum 42003
Count 730

Thursday, September 18, 2014

9-Day Forecast Sept 19-27

Beautiful weather. It has been a while since I've enjoyed this kind of weather. And you know what? We're going to have some more.

Temperatures will return briefly to the 80's and then cool back down for the rest of next week.
Except for a shower chance later this weekend, the remainder of next week appears dry and tranquil...and pleasant.

Expect some pretty cool readings for Tuesday morning. Some locations could be flirting with 40 degree low temperatures.

Enjoy the week ahead.

Friday 19th  78
Saturday 20th  64/83
Sunday 21st   66/79  Shower chance
Monday 22nd  60/68
Tuesday 23rd  49/70
Wednesday 24th  51/73
Thursday 25th  54/76
Friday 26th  55/78
Saturday 27th 55/79


Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Cold Blast At the Start of October???

I remember the first few days of October 1987. Man, it got cold. Especially since earlier during that week temperatures were well into the 80's but dropped into the upper 50's for highs toward the end of the week.

However, it was the nighttime temperatures that got me. Where I was camping, somewhere along the Green river in a cornfield near Beaver Dam, we had lows in the 33-34 degree range. My buddy and I still laugh about the moment that when the fire died down, I decided to shed my sleeping bag and walked toward his tent and demanded "Let me in...C'mon, let me in.

For Louisville, October 1987 finished as the 6th coldest October on record. The following year, October 1988 would become the 4th coldest October on record.

Now, I am not going to go all out and say October will be one of the coldest that we've had in years, but there are signs that the first week of October could start out very cool, if not downright cold.

I do not see any model showing how cold it will be yet. However, there is a storm system that is forecast to ride up the west coast over a High pressure ridge, tap into cold Canadian air that is building at present, and should be poised to follow a similar track that we have seen for many months it seems.

Cold air will spill into the northern U.S. and begin overspreading more real estate. How far south will that cold air reach? Where will the core of the cold air set up? Will it be of any consequence anyway?

Well, if parts of Kentucky do not get in on some frost by next week, heading toward the latter part of this month and into the first part of October looks like some locations could be staring at their first frost.

That's when I'll be getting out the big stainless steel pot for some chili and home-grown habaneros. Yee-hah!


Monday, September 15, 2014

9-Day Forecast for Louisville KY Sep 16-24

Benign weather will rule most of the week. Rain chances increase by the end of the weekend ahead of the next cold front. Pleasant temperatures in the 70's for the rest of the work week. Look for 80's as we head into the weekend. The start of next week appears to cool off, although models vary on how much cooling takes place. I will side with the ECMWF for now. We will have to watch how a tropical system in the west will interact with the aforementioned front for the weekend and any development in the Atlantic / Caribbean.

Tue 70
Wed 51 / 72
Thr  52 / 73
Fri  53 / 77
Sat 57 / 82
Sun 63 / 81   PM Rain
Mon 64 / 75  AM Rain
Tue 54 / 71
Wed 50 / 73

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook for September 20-24 shows above normal temperatures for the western half of the state while equal chances for the rest of the state. However, if the ECMWF is correct, then the trend will be toward cooler than normal for this time period from Saturday through Wednesday (for Louisville).