Saturday, April 25, 2015

Nowcast Severe Weather Vigilance

10:30pm...Final update...Primarily a large hail event. Reports of 2.50-3.00" size hail in Boyle county near Danville. Several rotating clusters but not many tornado reports.
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4:10pm...Filtered sunshine at my house and temperature is responding. Still in the low to mid 60's.
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2:00pm...My temperature is at 59...Pressure at 29.55"...Wind from NE.
New storms are beginning to break out in the warm sector near St Louis. These will be worth watching as this could mark the beginning of the severe outbreak. Temps across west KY into the 70's and dew point in the 60's. No change in my thinking for possible severe weather placement.
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12:20pm...Valley Station temperature at 54...Pressure at 29.63" and wind is from the NE.
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Good afternoon. The waiting game has begun. Location of the low is still well WNW of the region. The warm front is making some headway northeast. My calculations have low pressure tracking right along or just north of the Ohio River at Louisville. Up to 50 miles south of this feature along with its accompanying warm front will become a focal point for severe weather. This would be slightly north of my initial crosshairs. I'm still including the same areas of Campbellsville, E'town, and Columbia, but will include Rineyville, Radcliff, and Bardstown.

The 12z run of the NAM appears to have the low placed a little farther south of my thoughts but severe placement looks good.
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I will be reporting in a few times today, mainly updating where greatest data for severe weather resides. I may even get the chance to go and report from a location other than my home base in Valley Station.

At this time, my travels may take me to the Bernheim Forest, Clermont, Bardstown exit at I-65.

I will know something by later this morning or this afternoon.

MS

Friday, April 24, 2015

Severe Storms Looking More Likely

Severe Update
Still want to look at the next main run of the models compared with past systems.
Right now I have E'town, Campbellsville, Columbia, Upton, in the crosshairs. But, Bowling Green and points south into Tennessee could be hit particularly hard. Although some models are showing wobbling, the Ohio River could be the dividing line.
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Run to run of the NAM is consistent 00z to 12z), even though I would like to entertain the 00z run later this evening.

The NAM is leading the way suggesting a widespread severe weather event across Kentucky, Tennessee, northern MS and northern AL.

A recent NAM analog points to a March 28 1997 severe weather outbreak that killed at least 2 and injured 14 in Kentucky.

Of course, that does not mean it will happen again in the exact same fashion as that particular storm system then. After all, the 1997 weather map showed a Low pressure system several hundred miles north of where the upcoming low is forecast to trek. Nevertheless, most of the severe weather occurred along the warm front draped across Kentucky. And that is what is expected to happen in this instance.

In fact this scenario (the current one) has the potential to be more explosive than the 1997 storm system since the proximity of the low and thus the added spin in the atmosphere will be closer to Kentucky.

Severe storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the warm front while the low pressure treks along its path. Dangerous setup indeed.

However, it is possible that the bulk of the severe weather, tornadoes, will be confined to southern KY, Tennessee, northern MS, and northern AL with the highest chance across Tennessee.

This storm system is still developing. I would not be surprised if Louisville gets in on at least a large hail threat. More updates later as more information becomes available.

MS

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Mounting Mudslides

As record amounts of rain continue to inundate a large percentage of Kentucky, flooding concerns remain a high priority.

True, while areal flooding affects more people and property, flash floods may only impact a rather small area with a smaller number of residents. Nevertheless, the flood products issued by the NWS office in Jackson, Kentucky address both scenarios with their appropriate warnings when there is an imminent need to do so.

But, what about mudslides?

Mudslides are a byproduct of excessive rainfall, either during a short or a prolonged period of time.

Just as important as floodwaters covering area roadways, mudslides can also negatively impact travel and catch unsuspecting drivers off guard, during and including areal or flash flooding scenarios.

I want to see the NWS office in Jackson include the threat for mudslides in their flood products, especially the Watch products.

I am singling out Jackson because it's residents live in more elevated or higher-terrain areas, easily subjected to the threat of mudslides resulting from a heavy rain event.

In addition, the USGS has maps that can verify such locations in Kentucky are at a higher risk for landslide/mudslide issues.

In conclusion, the safety of travelers and property owners are of paramount importance. The National Weather Service's mission says in part to "protect life and property". Mudslides are dangerous and should become more prioritized in future endeavors of the NWS  at Jackson.

MS

Mid-Spring Frost/Freeze???

An impressive mass of cold air will spill into the region and camp out for a couple of days. Although temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the low 30's for several locations, the NWS office in Louisville in conjunction with neighboring offices have decided to withhold any official advisories, watches, and warnings for the time being.

While tonight's readings will be cold enough to support frost, winds should keep the atmosphere mixed, not allowing frost development.

However, in sheltered areas, winds may decouple just enough for the formation of patchy frost.

Tomorrow night, winds should relax enough for more widespread frost, especially across the bluegrass, along the Cumberland River, and the usual cold spots in Breckinridge and Meade counties just southwest of Louisville.

Although the NWS Louisville is not putting out any official products other than a HWO or SPS, I think frost/freeze products will go up for areas, primarily south and east of Louisville for Friday morning.

Hang in there you green thumb enthusiasts. Your garden-planting days are coming. My ground is still way too wet to till anyway.

MS