Monday, November 17, 2014

After the Storm

I don't know. Overall, I thought the storm played out as expected. Yes, there was the heavy band of snow on the table and its exact placement remained in question until it finally happened. However, as I write this post, I am not aware of any 6" amounts except for an isolated area up towards Covington/Cincinnati.

I received 2.1" in Valley Station. Surrounding areas received 2-4". I expected 1-3" on average with higher amounts anticipated. Therefore, my final call for 1-4" was in line.

Earlier last week, I highlighted an analog from 1995 Dec 08/09. It was the number 1 ranked analog that showed a band of 2-4" accumulations along the Ohio River for that event followed by some incredibly cold air. Lows in the single digits and highs struggling to get out of the teens. I really did not think that would be possible with this storm system. But, that storm system actually lined up pretty well with this one and that was at 5 days out while models were waffling.

On this day in 1958, Louisville set an all-time high temperature of 84 degrees. That'll warm you up.

On the flip side, 50.4% of the U.S. has snow on the ground. Those lake-effect snow bands are unbelievable, even by standards of those that experience them often. Some areas could see up to 3 feet before the 'machine' shuts off.

I'm still going over the data from the rest of the state.

That's all for now.

MS

Sunday, November 16, 2014

NOWCAST Sunday PM - Monday PM

Final Update 10:15am 11/17
Total snow in Valley Station  2.1"
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Check Updates below...3:15am Mon 11/17 at bottom of the page
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Winter Weather Advisories are out for a large part of Kentucky and Indiana, including Winter Storm Warnings for northern KY bordering Ohio.

I do expect an extension of the Winter Storm Warnings for areas along the Ohio River down to and including Jefferson County Indiana near Madison and Carroll County near Carrollton.

Short term models are beginning to hone in on possible locations of the heaviest snow amounts.

As I write this post, the NAM short term model is showing 6" amounts forecast for a narrow area along either side of the Ohio River from Madison IN to Covington KY.

Amounts drop off drastically to near 2" for Louisville. Now, this is just one short term model.

I'm still looking at the RAP model. It only goes out 18 hours during each hourly run. The 17z run goes out to about 7am tomorrow, showing a moderate band of snow progressing across the Louisville area. It looks like at least 4-5 hours of steady snow that looks like it could put down about 2" by 7am with minor amounts possible after that.

I'll be updating this page throughout the day, but right now, I would expect 1-3" for Louisville on average. Of course, there could be some higher amounts.

Here's the thing. The transition line is literally right along the River. How many times have we who live in Louisville seen that before?

Some areas just across the River from Louisville could be looking at 4 and 5" amounts.

Come back later as I will continue to monitor the NAM and RAP short term models...
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Updates posted here...

Okay, first update. That didn't take long. Remember that extension of the Winter Storm Warnings? Apparently while I was typing this up, a slew of Winter Storm Warnings just went into effect for areas along the Ohio River from Western KY through Madison and Carrollton like I wrote a few minutes ago and then on up to Cincinnati. Right now, Louisville is not in the Warning area.

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4:45pm UPDATE
Nothing new on my end. Still watching RAP model Snow from 3-8am in Louisville, still looks like 1-3" on average.
However, I do have a whiteboard malfunction. I've used this thing for the past couple of winters and served me well. Unfortunately, my little girl 'borrowed' it for her sand buckets and successfully grew weeds in the buckets and now I have caked-on mud and an inch of algae on the board. Cleaned it off some, but still residual algae may 'inflate' snow totals. Don't worry. I normally take several different measurements from adjacent areas in relation to my snowboard and then average them.
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9:25pm UPDATE
I may still post one more time this evening. Here's what I am looking at. The short term NAM keeps the bulk of 4-5" amounts north of the Ohio River. Also, the RAP shows snow ending in Louisville by noon tomorrow. I'm telling you Louisville has the potential to receive 3+"; however, sleet appears to mix in for a while thereby cutting down on snow totals. 1-3" still looks more likely here. But it's going to be really close. If Louisville gets less sleet, 2-4" looks like a good bet, still below warning criteria, unless the NWS Louisville decides to issue one for impact purposes since it will be during the rush hour that snow will still be accumulating.
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3:15am UPDATE
Even here in Valley Station, we have finally transitioned to all snow. Getting reports of 2" to my west in Palmyra IN.


Rapid Refresh Model seems to have a pretty good handle on this so far. Transition to all snow by 3am, including my location...wow.

Interesting note...slug of heaviest snowfall may occur just prior to ending here in Louisville or my part of southwest Jefferson county by 10am. Could be a stretch of 2-3 hours of moderate to heavy snow according to the 07z run of the RAP. Will be interesting to see if that trend can verify.
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5:00am UPDATE
Snow total in Valley Station at 1.3"

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8:00am UPDATE
Snow total in Valley Station at 1.9"
Seeing the back end of accumulating snows on radar. If this band holds together, minor accumulations are expected that should put me over the 2" mark

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8:55am UPDATE
A band of moderate snow racing towards Louisville. Unfortunately, it's moving so fast, I expect less than a half inch for most locations.

Regardless of what the total at Louisville Int'l, a new snowfall record for this date was set. Especially since the old record for this date was 0.1".

Here's your 'Hot Chocolate Moment' of the day...On this day in 1958, Louisville recorded its warmest November temperature of 84 degrees.

One more final post after this band pushes through....Nevertheless, snow showers may kick in later today into the evening and overnight. But those will be finer snow grains than the nice fluffy ones we have been seeing. So don't expect much accumulation.



My 'Almost' Final Call for Snowfall...Sunday PM/Monday PM

If you read my First Call, I'm not going to change much on that. However, downstate, it does look more and more like a wet event. Still, as the colder air rushes in, minor accumulations should still occur. Additional snow showers through Tuesday morning may provide further minor accumulations. So, I still think everyone will get in on the white stuff.

There is still the potential for a narrow band of heavy snow as the transition from rain to all snow occurs when the cold air rushes in. That still looks like it will happen along the Ohio River from Southern Indiana to Cincinnati and points just south of that.

Therefore, I'll be making judicious use of the Rapid Refresh model today and try to see if it can sniff out any of those heavier bands that may try and develop during the overnight.

Louisville and Southern Indiana:  1-4"
Cincinnati to Owenton: 1-4"
Georgetown and Lexington: 1-3"
E'town to Bardstown: up to 1" not counting minor accumulations overnight Monday.
Bowling Green to Morehead: Trace to 2"
Somerset to Middlesboro: minor accumulations counting snow showers overnight Monday.
Pikeville: Trace to 2" with any heavier snow showers on the cold side overnight Monday.

MS

Saturday, November 15, 2014

MikJournal First Call for Snowfall Sunday PM-Monday PM

After reviewing the 12z run of the NAM and comparing it with the other models, I've decided to put out a first call for snowfall  but will likely make changes with my final call later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Here's my thoughts....

The most recent run of the NAM continues to 'warm' this system. With that said, initially the upper levels may not support much snow but rain or a rain/snow mix by Sunday evening across southern and southeast Kentucky.

In fact all the way to the Ohio River, conditions will not support all snow yet. But the main precipitation will not move in to those areas until later in the evening into the overnight.

By then, at least a light rain/snow mix will be in progress along the Ohio River after midnight while rainy conditions should exist along a line from Richmond southward.

Precip does transition to all snow by rush hour Monday morning possibly impacting travel for many residents in north-central Kentucky and possibly as far east as Lexington.

During the day Monday, colder air really begins to filter in on the heels of brisk north and northwest winds, blowing snow around with additional snow showers expected overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

The entire state will see snow. It's just that some locations will see more. Here are my first call numbers...I'm not even going to try and put this into graphical format as I know these values may change later.

Louisville and Southern Indiana -   1-4"
Cincinnati to Lexington -    1-4"
Bowling Green to Morehead-   0.5 - 2.5"
Somerset to Middlesboro- Trace to 2"
Pikeville to Ashland-   1-2"

There are hints from additional models that a stripe of heavy snow may occur. At this time, it is still too early to see where that may set up. In fact, may have to leave that to the dreaded nowcast mode when using the RAP or Rapid Refresh Model.

Final Call late tonight or tomorrow morning....

MS