Welcome to the winter page...with links and hints to the 2015/2016 winter season.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

And the NAM Says...?

Anyone who has read the posts on here knows I often use the NAM model in the winter, especially when the event is between 24 and 36 hours away. Of course, I still like to see what the other models are showing. But nearly 80 % of my confidence is placed in this model at 24-36 hours ETA, especially when it's all snow.

The Sunday time frame might bring many their heaviest snowfall for the next few days, not like last month, of course.

Look for at least Advisory snows going into effect soon. Depending on what the next run of the NAM shows, some may be upgraded to Warning status for snowfall of at least 4" in a 24-hour time span.

And the NAM says...
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9:45 a.m - Still looks very snowy for Kentucky. Awaiting graphics....for Sunday and overnight.

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10:00 a.m - From the Weather Prediction Center...through Monday morning...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

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10:10 a.m - Here's a graphical look at accumulations for Sunday into Monday morning...the numbers are in millimeters. Convert to centimeters by dividing by 10 then divide that by 2.54" to get a liquid equivalent and multiply by 10 to get a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio number in inches...

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=nam&run=12&type=SN&hi=024&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na



Thursday, February 11, 2016

Lexington KY's Snowfall History Since 01/01/1990

Well, that was an interesting project. I picked apart the last 25 years or so of the calendar years and official snow seasons that run from July 1 through June 30 of each year and came up with some revealing totals for Lexington KY. Find out which day of each month had the most days of measurable snow >0.1" during the winter season of December through February over all those years. How about which days of the winter season did not record any measurable snow greater than a trace amount. And of course, the efficiency numbers. I'll explain that in a little bit.

Days of Snow Total Inches Inches/Day
1-Feb 2 1.1 0.55
2-Feb 4 6.1 1.53
3-Feb 5 8.4 1.68
4-Feb 6 14.6 2.43
5-Feb 5 3.9 0.78
6-Feb 6 7.0 1.17
7-Feb 4 5.8 1.45
8-Feb 6 5.1 0.85
9-Feb 6 6.6 1.10
10-Feb 8 5.3 0.66
11-Feb 4 6.8 1.70
12-Feb 3 1.8 0.60
13-Feb 5 2.7 0.54
14-Feb 5 2.5 0.50
15-Feb 3 10.2 3.40
16-Feb 4 11.3 2.83
17-Feb 3 3.3 1.10
18-Feb 2 5.5 2.75
19-Feb 1 0.1 0.10
20-Feb
21-Feb 2 1.1 0.55
22-Feb 1 1.8 1.80
23-Feb 3 0.7 0.23
24-Feb 1 0.8 0.80
25-Feb 4 8.3 2.08
26-Feb 4 1.6 0.40
27-Feb 1 0.2 0.20
28-Feb 1 0.3 0.30
29-Feb 1 0.5 0.50
100 123.4 1.16

This is just a sample of what my spreadsheet looks like for February since 1990, ending in 2015. As you can see, the 2nd column shows the number of instances with measurable snow greater than 0.1" for that date. The 3rd column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date. Then, the last column shows the efficiency number, or how many inches of snow accumulated during each instance for that date.

The most productive snow days fall right in the middle of the month. Since 1990, February 15 and 16 typically average between 2.8 and 3.4" per snow event.

During any given year, February 10 has proven to be the likeliest day you will have measurable snow. Yesterday, as a matter of fact, Lexington received 0.5" of snow for this February 10. Of course, that is not included in the table above, since it only runs through 2015. But, now you can chalk up another day, at 9 now, that it has snowed on February 10 since 1990.

The 123.4" that has accumulated during the 1990-2015 time period is the snowiest month of the winter and subsequently the calendar year. Yes, it beat out the month of January, which has more days, and every day of that month has seen some type of measurable snow throughout the aforementioned time period.

At the moment, February 20 is the only day that has not registered any measurable snow since 1990.

MS



Monday, February 8, 2016

MikJournal Monday 02/08/16

I want to show you what I have been working on this past week. It's been a lot of fun though a bit tedious at times.

Briefly, this snapshot of my spreadsheet shows Lexington Kentucky's snowfall amounts since February 1990 through 2015.


Days of Snow Total Inches Inches/Day
1-Feb 2 1.1 0.55
2-Feb 4 6.1 1.53
3-Feb 5 8.4 1.68
4-Feb 6 14.6 2.43
5-Feb 5 3.9 0.78
6-Feb 6 7.0 1.17
7-Feb 4 5.8 1.45
8-Feb 6 5.1 0.85
9-Feb 6 6.6 1.10
10-Feb 8 5.3 0.66
11-Feb 4 6.8 1.70
12-Feb 3 1.8 0.60
13-Feb 5 2.7 0.54
14-Feb 5 2.5 0.50
15-Feb 3 10.2 3.40
16-Feb 4 11.3 2.83
17-Feb 3 3.3 1.10
18-Feb 2 5.5 2.75
19-Feb 1 0.1 0.10
20-Feb
21-Feb 2 1.1 0.55
22-Feb 1 1.8 1.80
23-Feb 3 0.7 0.23
24-Feb 1 0.8 0.80
25-Feb 4 8.3 2.08
26-Feb 4 1.6 0.40
27-Feb 1 0.2 0.20
28-Feb 1 0.3 0.30
29-Feb 1 0.5 0.50
100 123.4 1.16

The second column highlights how many times measurable snow of at least 0.1" has occurred for each day of the month. The third column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date over the years since 1990. Finally, the last column shows what I call the efficiency number, or how much snow fell per measurable snow event for that date.

Of course, the totals are displayed at the bottom. Just to let you know, since 1990, February has been the most productive month of the winter for snowfall in Lexington. Yes, despite less number of days than January and including no measurable snowfall for the 20th of February, the month beat out January in total snowfall during this period.

As a side note, if you look at the date of February 10, you will note that there have been 8 instances of measurable snow for that date, the most of any day for the month of February. And you know what? We may add to that, since snow showers are expected to occur over the next few days, including the 10th.

In future posts when nothing is going on, I'll display more spreadsheet views of the other winter months of December and January. Actually, I'm just about done with February, so that one will be available this week. But, the spreadsheet view you see above is what will be displayed during that post.

For the next few days, regionally, we will be dealing with off and on snow showers and squalls. We call them snow showers because of the convective nature of the type of snow. Lots of instability between the surface and the air above will promote and foster bursts of, at times, heavy snow and wind with some of the stronger bands or squalls.

For the most part, the major arteries of our highway systems in Kentucky should be able to handle the light to moderate bands that occur during the daytime, but if these squalls are still kicking up a fuss during the nighttime hours, travel will become more negatively impacted.

In addition, the heavier squalls with strong winds at times, will reduce visibility suddenly. Drivers will likely be slowing down dramatically at times. So, do not think that since the weather is not bad where you are currently driving is going to be that way for the rest of your travel. A distance of a few miles or less will have no snow at times to intense, near white-out conditions at other times. And if you are just plowing along at normal highway speed when you come upon drivers that have had to slow down, well, you know what can happen. Don't be that driver. Use common sense and plan ahead for travel issues. You are not the only driver on the road. I know, that's hard to believe, isn't it? I have to tell myself that all of the time. So, be careful out there.

MS











Saturday, February 6, 2016

AO Negative to Positive Alert

Ok, what a strange sounding title for a post. However, one of the patterns I have noticed is when the Arctic Oscillation is in a significantly negative mode (-3 to -5) but trending positively toward neutral, milder air is attempting to return to our region after a stout cold blast.

Often associated with milder air will be a storm system that gathers moisture from the Gulf. As long as the track of the low pressure area does not take a route to the Great Lakes, which should not happen in this case but is still possible, some type of significant wintry weather will occur in our region.

However, I really would not say that this storm system, if it can develop, will be as memorable as the January Jukebox when everyone was doing snow dances to the sound of snowflakes piling up in their neighborhoods.

Look, this storm system has not developed yet, but the AO will be trending toward neutral at about the same time the models are developing a potential winter storm. But, the other teleconnections that I like to use are pretty much out to lunch or are on vacation.

The NAO, EPO, and PNA will all be positive. Therefore, if it does snow, look for a heavy perhaps wet snow, good-packing unlike last month's snowfall for many that was more dry and powdery.

Since snow ratios will be lower in number due to the high water content, I would expect lesser accumulations as the snow will pack down an already existing base.

IF this storm system develops and will produce snow for our region, which could happen in the vicinity of February 14.

At this time, it would be impossible to peg amounts. I am just letting you know that this storm system does have a teleconnection that favors a winter storm for someone, hopefully our region if of course you're a snow lover like me.

MS