Thursday, December 4, 2014

Perfect Timing?

Looking at the title of my post, you may be thinking about the cold rain and sleet moving in this Thursday morning. It's even raining here at my house in Valley Station and the battery for my digital rain gauge is no longer transmitting data. Or perhaps the current Orion rocket launch delay due to wind violation just above the launch pad despite seemingly perfect visibilities and dry conditions at the site. Sam Champion from the Weather Channel morning show still cannot believe that computers have come this far that they can now override the countdown to launch.

Nevertheless, the 'perfect timing' issue I'm thinking of this morning is related to something that might occur within the next couple of weeks, maybe less. Here, let me explain.

Another super typhoon is trekking across the western Pacific, like toward the Philippines. Curvature toward Japan may result in yet another instance when a tropical system affecting Japan might make our weather here in the United States much colder than normal.

Combine this with a weak El Nino and seasonal rainy pattern in California, can you see it? Cold air invasion from the north and an active Pacific stream coming in across California is going to make for interesting weather down the road.

Stay tuned.


Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Clipper Time

One of several clippers I am predicting for this upcoming winter season will embark upon the region later today into the overnight.

As with most clipper type systems, abundant moisture is generally not present. However, at times, these systems have and often overachieved on many occasions.

Since the NAM has had a decent handle of the east coast storm, which did not bring much to the eastern part of Kentucky, as it showed, I'm looking at a weakening consensus of snow totals for the region.

I've looked at the 0z and now the 12z runs of the NAM. Best moisture placement continues to look to be along the Parkways. This has been a consistent signal; however, QPF amounts seem to be declining.

Nevertheless, from Madisonville and Owensboro in the west to Campbellsville and Corbin toward the east look to receive some accumulations, anywhere from a dusting to as much as 3" in isolated areas.

Again, these systems are difficult to forecast. Sometimes, they overachieve. But, the look so far appears that much of those areas may see an inch or less.

It's still possible that some WWA's may be issued for some of those counties in the zone for the best moisture placement.


Monday, November 24, 2014

It's Windy Out There

Over the past 2 hours, winds have peaked between 49 and 53 miles per hour at Louisville, resulting in tree damage and power outages, not only across Jefferson County, but now encompassing a large part of our region.

As I write this post at 8:30am, Jefferson County LGE customers have reported outages now affecting 661. Fayette County's KU/ODP customer outage is up to 163.

Rain is now moving in here at my location in Valley Station. Winds have gusted to near 50 mph with some small limbs littering my yard.

More updates soon on the 'big blow'.


9:20am UPDATE
About 10 minutes ago, winds gusted to at least 50 mph here in Valley Station. At one point I will say it was between 50 and 55 mph for about 20 seconds, resulting in additional small limb damage in my yard.

Outages in Jefferson County have ramped up just within the past several minutes. Now up over 3,000 with half of those in the Strathmoor Village area.


Monday, November 17, 2014

After the Storm

I don't know. Overall, I thought the storm played out as expected. Yes, there was the heavy band of snow on the table and its exact placement remained in question until it finally happened. However, as I write this post, I am not aware of any 6" amounts except for an isolated area up towards Covington/Cincinnati.

I received 2.1" in Valley Station. Surrounding areas received 2-4". I expected 1-3" on average with higher amounts anticipated. Therefore, my final call for 1-4" was in line.

Earlier last week, I highlighted an analog from 1995 Dec 08/09. It was the number 1 ranked analog that showed a band of 2-4" accumulations along the Ohio River for that event followed by some incredibly cold air. Lows in the single digits and highs struggling to get out of the teens. I really did not think that would be possible with this storm system. But, that storm system actually lined up pretty well with this one and that was at 5 days out while models were waffling.

On this day in 1958, Louisville set an all-time high temperature of 84 degrees. That'll warm you up.

On the flip side, 50.4% of the U.S. has snow on the ground. Those lake-effect snow bands are unbelievable, even by standards of those that experience them often. Some areas could see up to 3 feet before the 'machine' shuts off.

I'm still going over the data from the rest of the state.

That's all for now.